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The start of a new year is the time for predictions, so I thought I would venture one of my own for 2010.  The topic is a change I think will happen with online networking users, and although this refers to personal use, businesses will probably be affected as well.

A good analogy I’ve heard is that social networking brings far away people closer to you, at the expense of making those close to you further away. This makes sense, because we all have our limit of desired social interactions in a day (or week or month), and time spent talking with the college buddy who lives in Boston is time not spent talking to your much better friend who lives across town.

And after the initial rush of catching up with the high school friend who you haven’t seen in 17 years wears off, you suddenly realize that you really don’t care that they “Took the kids for ice cream this afternoon” or “Chose tiles for the big bathroom remodel project today.”

That’s not meant as a knock on old friends!

But everyone has limited time, and we are asked to do more and more with our finite resources these days.

For an example, I’m fairly new to Facebook. And as a newbie, I accepted every single invite that came my way, no matter how out of the blue it seemed…and surely thought that I’d never use the “Hide” button. For those unfamiliar, this button skips over posts made by that specific individual. It’s a little less permanent that Unfriending someone. (Don’t know that term? It was the Word of the Year in 2009). And I never thought I would use it. But now I have, at least sparingly so far.

Twitter has the same problem. You only see the last 25 tweets or so from the people you have subscribed to. But sign up for 200 or 300 accounts, just because they looked interesting at the time, and you will hardly ever see the messages that you really care about amidst the tsunami of messages from everyone else.

My prediction? Social networks will shrink, not grow, in 2010. I don’t mean that there won’t be new users who join these networks. There are still lots of people who are participating now, and some of them will finally give in this year. But the number of people you follow, or friend, or connect with will shrink to a more manageable number. (One exception may be LinkedIn. Primarily a business tool, maximizing your number of contacts will still be advantageous)

People will probably become more and more selective in who they allow into their network, to keep from being overwhelmed with information.

And note that this really doesn’t apply to celebrities, who use social networks primarily as one-way communication.

Or, that one person we all knew who had 11,423 “friends” on MySpace.